Bristol Panrorama

Integrated Uncertainty Modelling for Decision Making

2 April 2009


  •    •    •    •  

Multiple attribute decision making requires the aggregation of diverse sources of evidence so as to obtain qualitative or quantitative information concerning high-level outcomes or actions. The modelling of uncertainty is central to any such formal decision making process. However, the sources of uncertainty in complex decision problems are many and varied. In addition to probabilistic factors such as measurement error and other random effects, the decision making process often requires us to make qualitative and subjective judgements that cannot easily be translated into precise probability values. Such judgements give rise to a number of different sources of uncertainty including; fuzziness if they are based on linguistic information; epistemic uncertainty when their reliability is in question; ignorance when they are insufficient to identify or restrict key parameters; imprecision when parameters and probability distributions can only be estimated within uncertainty bounds.

This workshop aim to bring together researchers and practitioners with expertise in a wide range of methodologies for uncertainty modelling, with the aim of exploring how different types and sources of uncertainty can be integrated into a coherent framework in order to improve decision making. Areas of interest include; Bayesian statistics, Dempster-Shafer theory, imprecise probability theory, random set theory, rough set theory, fuzzy set theory and interval methods.

Areas of interest include: Bayesian statistics, Dempster-Shafer theory, imprecise probability theory, random set theory, rough set theory, fuzzy set theory and interval methods.

The workshop will be held at the Avon Gorge Hotel, Bristol. Funding comes from The EPSRC Bridging the Gaps initiative and the Bristol Environmental Risk Research Centre.

Speakers

Contact:

  • Please contact Kerrie Walker if you have any questions about the Workshop.
The University of Bristol EPSRC Bridging the Gaps Bristol Environmental Risk Research Centre